Elkhorn Creek Lodge

The Mendacity of the MSM

Posted in mccain, obama, politics by Eugene Podrazik on October 28, 2008

Here’s the quote to start off this blog (hat tip to Virginia Virtucon and Hugh Hewitt):

 

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.
 
Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.

 

 

Now, we can make sense of what is really happening in the volitility and variability of the polling data for the 2008 election cycle; as remarked upon by Jay Cost at RCP. Variability that doesn’t show the data lining up in any sort of bell curve.  Standard deviations that are double those of the 2004 election cycle.

The key passage is “concerted voter suppression effort by the MSM.” Without getting into any conspiracy theory, the beyond blatant MSM bias more than makes the case for an almost monolithic support for Obama. Moreover, despite the resources and time, it has made little to dig into Obama’s past. A past that, given a different ideological paradigm, would have been more than apparent. Bloggers for small publications have managed to dig up Obama’s socialist past. And these same said individuals have tied Ayers around Obama’s neck. Large organizations would, if they really wanted to, could have, with their in-house resources and expertise, could have done all of that in about twelve hours; back in January 2008. And, the two local Chicago MSM giants the Sun-Times and the Chicago Tribune, with their local contacts and experience, could have done it in two hours. And, if the late Mike Royko, perhaps the dean of the anti-Chicago Machine muckrakers, were still alive, Obama would have been laid bare in about two minutes.

But, none of this was ever done. It was far more important to smear Palin’s 17 year old daughter than to question “the One.” 

Which brings us back to the polls. We have to realize that many of these polling firms have as clients, the MSM and other fellow-traveller organizations. So, we have to ask what are these clients really buying? I’m sure it’s accurate information for internal use. But, are they also issuing doctored information for public consumption? Would these polling firms be getting the business they have if they were reporting, say, McCain kicking Obama’s butt? Or, is what is being reported a lie?

If, indeed, someone is cooking the books, then we have a very logical explanation for this poll variability. The liars aren’t getting their story straight. 

 

 

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